[Welcome OpinionJournal.com readers--see the "Update" below.]
One of the great fallacies of this political season is that the election will be decided on November 2. Wrong. The whole thing will be determined this Sunday afternoon at Fed-Ex field in Washington, D.C. That's where the Washington Redskins host the Green Bay Packers. You can forget Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, RealClearPolitics, etc. None of them can match the track record of the Redskins Rule.
For the past 72 years, the fate of the Redskins in their last game before the election has predicted whether or not the incumbent party holds the White House. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party stays. If the Redskins lose or tie, the incumbent loses the White House. The rule has held for the last 18 elections (see below).
David Dolan, an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, calculated the odds of this happening for PackerNews.com: 1 in 263.5 million. (By the way, that’s 2,600 times higher than the chance of getting killed by lightning!)
Football fans will recall that four years ago the Tennessee Titans played the Washington Redskins in the pre-election game. The game, as you may recall, was a cliffhanger. (And Al Gore was actually at the game to cheer on his team.) But the Redskins Rule held: the Titans won, 27-21. And Bush won the presidential nail-biter.
Prediction: the Redskins will win decisively.
For the history buffs, here are the details:
2000
Tennessee 27, Redskins 21
George W. Bush defeats Al Gore—Democrats lose the White House
1996
Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16
Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole—Democrats keep the White House
1992
New York Giants 24, Redskins 7
Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush—Republicans lose the White House
1988
Redskins 27, New Orleans 24
George H.W. Bush defeats Michael Dukakis—Republicans keep the White House
1984
Redskins 27, Atlanta 14
Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale—Republicans keep the White House
1980
Minnesota 39, Redskins 14
Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter—Democrats lose the White House
1976
Dallas 20, Redskins 7
Jimmy Carter defeats Gerald Ford—Republicans lose the White House
1972
Redskins 35, New York Jets 17
Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern—Republicans keep the White House
1968
Minnesota 27, Redskins 13
Richard Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey—Democrats lose the White House
1964
Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10
Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater—Democrats keep the White House
1960
Cleveland 31, Redskins 10
John Kennedy defeats Richard Nixon—the Republicans lose the White House
1956
Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14
Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson—Republicans keep the White House
1952
Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23
Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson—Democrats lose the White House
1948
Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21
Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey—Democrats keep the White House
1944
Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20
Franklin Roosevelt defeats Thomas Dewey—Democrats keep the White House
1940
Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10
Franklin Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie—Democrats keep the White House
1936
Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10
Franklin Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon—Democrats keep the White House
1932
Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7
Franklin Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover—Republicans lose the White House
UPDATE: Welcome OpinionJournal.com readers! James Taranto writes:
This number seems vastly out of line. If we assume that the Skins have a 50% chance of winning each game and the incumbent party has a 50% chance of winning each election, the odds of the two indicators matching up for 18 elections in a row are 1 in 262,144 (2 to the 18th power). The odds that they will match up for 19 elections in a row are 1 in 524,288. Does this mean you should bet against the pattern repeating? Of course not. The odds that it will are 50-50 (with Bush and the Skins both slightly favored).
Hey. I report--you decide! If there's anyone out there who knows how to calcuate statistics, feel free to leave your answer in the comments section below, and/or email opinionjournal@wsj.com!
BTW, I've emailed Professor Dolan for his response.
Update 2. Professor Dolan emailed to say that PackerNews.com misquoted him. He said "thousand," not "million." I blame Al Gore for inventing the Internet--or as George Bush calls it, the Internets. Sorry for the confusion. But I'm still predicting a Redskins--and Bush--decisive victory!
Update 3. I erred in my original post--as noted in the comments section below--by not specifying that it applies only to the last Redskins home game, not just the last game, before the election. Sorry for the confusion. And by now, everyone knows that the Redskins did indeed lose. Well, if the Red Sox can break "the curse," then the Packers can snap the "Redskins Rule"! Go W.
